LONG TERM: bear market
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have ended, NDX/NAZ uptrending.
We have reviewed the NDX/NAZ charts over the past seven years. There have only been two occassions when the NDX/NAZ have deviated from the SPX/DOW, and both times they lagged. Probabilities favor that the NDX/NAZ are leading this market, and the SPX/DOW will confirm uptrends soon.
COMMODITIES:
Bonds dropped 2.0% on the week and still appear to be uptrending.
Crude rallied 7.8% this week while remaining in a downtrend.
Gold gained 2.7% this week and may have bottomed recently at $905, but no uptrend confirmation yet.
The Euro (+1.2%) and USD (-0.9%) have been going sideways for more than a month. The USD appears to be weakening.
20/7.. Stock Tiger: It now looks like the one month pullback on the S&P 500 completed the minor b wave down and we have started minor wave c. up. This will be confirmed if it makes a new yearly high. This move could eventually take the index back to the 200 week EMA near 1166 the even number 1000 would be strong resistance..
17/7.. COTS Timer: All Systems Go, Market Ready to Bounce
- S&P 500: My trading setup for SPX goes bullish on Monday's open of trading, after seven weeks in cash. It'll be a short-lived trade, lasting just one week before the setup goes to cash.
- BKX U.S. Bank Index: U.S. financials had a great ol' time this past week, and the good times look like they're still on.
- Natural gas: It remains in bullish mode this coming week, too. Large speculator and small trader total open interest remains very buoyant and shows no signs of breaking down.
- Crude oil: Derivatives positioning in black gold remains on track for a prolonged bullish period starting in mid-August (by "prolonged," I mean at least two weeks and counting). I've got a coming bullish signal for the open of Aug. 10..
For 20/7.. The Smart Trader: Market is in bullish mode and ST trend is up for now. We could go to spx 956 again depending on next week's earnings. LONG POSITIONS ARE RISKY HERE.
17/07.. Mclarenreport: S&P 500
17/07.. AstroCycle predict spx to 963.66
July 18th, 2009 at 1:31 am The Evil Speculator:
Is the H&S Really Over?.. I was one of the few bulls going into last weekend holding longs when everybody else was expecting the market to drop off the cliff, and now I am expecting a big drop on Monday based on the above H&S pattern formation below together with my bull/bear cycle work that I have posted previously.
Here are 3 different scenarios:
- Go down to fill the gap, then go back up,
- Go down to retest the neckline, then go back up,
- Go all the way down to 85.4 to complete H&S pattern.
20/07.. Evil Speculator: After today’s blood letting the bull leeches are so pumped up that they’ll most likely explode if the extract any more life juice from those poor battered bears. We should be completing this crazy wave sometime Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. Bulltarts - please stay tuned for a healthy helping of good ole fashioned ass kicking - nasty bear style.
First turn pike should be around 920 ish - we could drop below 900 but hey - after this week I won’t get wishful thinking get the better of me. Tell ya what - we touch 920 and I grab the money and thank the tooth fairy.
17/07.. Michael G. Eckert inverse H&S on 60min
For an updated chart, click here..
7/18 -- Trend Channel Magic: What recession? If Intel, IBM and the banks can make money, we must be out of the woods now - right? Nevermind that IBM and Intel both had declining revenues, and the banks had help from Uncle Sam, despite deteriorating asset quality. And Goldman's blockbuster profits were almost entirely trading profits. But none of that matters really. The fact is America is back in there buying and if you're short, you're stuck figuring out just how much pain you can stand while you wait for economic reality to catch up with the masses.
This is where you have to respect the charts, despite being a non-believer. The purple short term down channels from the June highs to July lows are now history across the board. The blue minis most likely represent the first leg of a new ST upchannel. All of them, by the way, are still intact, except for the financials (XLF), where the only break so far has occurred. I would expect a red mini to be imminent, which will ultimately give us a low point from which to guage the angle of this new ST uptrend.
From a long term perspective, the only lines that could provide upside resistance are the greens on the one-year charts that link the June high with the highs at the beginning of the year -- and they are near at hand. Since these lines have no counterpart off the March lows, they are somewhat questionable and may be easily pushed upward. Also worth noting is the SPX is now at its 3-year line (which does have a lower channel line associated) and the Dow has popped above its 3-year.
In sum, the momentum and group pressure want to take things higher. That may lead to greater danger in the fall, but for now, it's governing the day.
Herman: The recent move north cought me off guard, I'm still positioned short on Standard Bank, now at 61.8% retrace and I hope to reduce my small loss and profit when market hopefully move south on Monday to Wednesday next week towards the 50% retrace inline with Fujisan's thoughts, G100 S&P500 Ranking, Trend Channel Magic above and Michael G. Eckert's inverse H&S pattern on his 60min chart above.
For an updated chart, click here..
By Thursday/Friday next week, I hope to turn my short around to face north as I expect the market to move in its final C-leg up to SPX 1100. Therafter, the bear might resume and take us down to retest the lows or possibly lower.
For the Long Term Picture, click here..
For a Peek into the Future with Cycle Studies
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