Commitments of Traders Sweet Spot

Testing $BPGDM GDX Trading System

2010-06-22T07:21:00.000+02:00

22 June 2010 South Africa

US economic growth gauge rises to 10-week high-ECRI

2010-04-03T21:17:00.005+02:00

US economic growth gauge rises to 10-week high-ECRI
Fri Apr 2, 2010 10:30am EDT

NEW YORK, April 2 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S.
economic growth rose to its highest level in 10 weeks, while
its yearly growth gauge also increased, indicating the recovery
remains on track, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
rose to a 10-week of 131.9 for the week ended March 26, up from
a revised 131.4 the week earlier.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to a five-week high
of 13.9 percent from 13.8 percent in the prior week.

"With the WLI holding near January's all-time high, the
ongoing U.S. economic revival will prove resilient in the
months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of
ECRI.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)

SPX broke the March 2009 uptrend

2010-01-21T22:45:00.005+02:00

ETF Corner

Current Positions

2010-01-18T15:04:00.007+02:00

Natural Gas & Live Stock

2009-12-30T18:54:00.003+02:00

Current Positions

2009-12-28T23:14:00.007+02:00

SASOL just broke out of a horizontal triangle.

HARMONY Gold just corrected horizontal "double three" & volume spike.

Gold Miners should give a BUY signal soon.

TBT a Buy for 2010 and longer

2009-12-28T15:57:00.005+02:00

Bought TBT @ 41.49 in late 2008

Long term treasury yield headed for W 3 up

60 year cycle comming to an end

NatGas a Buy for 2010

2009-12-27T17:45:00.007+02:00

$NatGas (daily) headed up for W iii

NatGas cheap compared to Crude Oil

Bought HNU.TO @ 11.57

Live Stock a Buy for 2010

2009-12-27T17:13:00.005+02:00

$GVX (daily) headed up for W iii

Livestock priced fair i.t.o $CRB

BOUGHT COW @ 27.94

Current Positions

2009-12-22T13:29:00.005+02:00

Weekend Update

2009-12-19T15:49:00.004+02:00

Market Trend since March 2009 intact

Livestock a buy to hold throughout 2010

Natural Gas a buy to hold throughout 2010

Current Positions

2009-12-14T17:20:00.005+02:00

Weekend Update

2009-12-13T10:39:00.005+02:00

TBT - Inverse LT Treasuries

Natural Gas

REIT'S ex U.S.

The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Select REIT IndexSM and includes only REITs and REIT-like securities.

Inclusion Requirements:
- The company must be both an equity owner and operator of commercial and/or residential real estate.
- At least 75% of the company’s total revenue must be derived from the ownership and operation of real estate assets.
- The company must have a minimum total market capitalization of USD 200 million at the time of its inclusion.
- The liquidity of the company’s stock must be commensurate with that of other institutionally held real estate securities.

— Exclusions:
- Mortgage REITs, net-lease REITs, real estate finance companies, mortgage brokers and bankers, commercial and residential real estate brokers and estate agents, home builders, large landowners and subdividers of unimproved land, hybrid REITs and timber REITs.
- Companies that have more than 25% of their assets in direct mortgage investments.

Market Breadth

Weekend Update

2009-12-05T06:08:00.003+02:00

NASDAQ - Extreme Caution !!

2009-12-04T20:21:00.000+02:00

AstroCycle.Net Forecasts

2009-11-30T10:19:00.001+02:00

Gold, Currencies and the 4-8 year cycle Harmonics Introduction

With Gold making all time highs the policies of the Federal Reserve and US Treasuries are coming under closer scrutiny and now is a good time to look at the cycles governing the moves in all Currencies including the oldest and most reliable Currencies which are Gold and Silver. The 4, 8 and 16 year cycle Harmonics rule Gold and other Currencies with a tendency to stretch into the larger 50, 100, 200 and 400 month versions but also the PI series of 4.3, 8.6, 17,2 and 34.4 years. For example the Bull Market from August 1896 to September 1929 was 397 months long and rose 1,000%, while the next one from July 1932 to February 1965 was 403 months and went up 2,000%, and the latest one from December 1974 to October 2007 was 394 months and also rose 2,000%, and 400 months is 33.3 years and one third a Century.

Gold Summary
Gold has been making regular highs near January every 8 years with the next one due near January 2012, but we are likely to make a Wave 3 high between 1200-1300 near January 2010 first and then have a Wave 4 correction before the next Wave 5 high that should take us to 3,200 into January 2012. Recently Gold has been following an 11 and 22 month cycle that is just short of the 12 and 24 month Harmonics of the 1-2-4-8-16 year series. The speeded up tempo is probably due to the increased optimism and momentum shortening the cycles as we get close to the first of three probable Gold highs in January 2012, 2016 and 2020. With the last 11 month highs being in May 06, April 07, March 08 and February 09, the odds of the next one occurring in January 2010 is high since it is also a 22 month cycle high.

US Dollar Summary
The US Dollar is a much more liquid market than Gold and is less regular in its behavior but the 4.3, 8.6 and 17.2 year PI cycle series is easy to confirm with the Yen and US Dollar showing major turns 17.2 years apart. The European and Canadian currencies have also seen highs and lows just about every 16 years for the last 50 to 100 years with the latest lows in 1985-86, 2001-02 and highs in 1979-80 and 1995-96. The US Dollar is actually behaving a lot like it did in the last declining phase of the 17.2 year PI cycle except that it is falling a bit slower from 2002 to 2010 (-40%) than it did from 1985 to 1993 when it dropped 50% of its value. The USD should continue to behave like in the early 1990's and make a low in December or January before moving back once more to the 90 area in 2010. We are already 17.5 years from the July 1992 low in the US Dollar and a turn higher is expected any time, but we made marginal new lows in July 1992 and there is a small risk we could breach the 70 level briefly despite the weaker bearish momentum of 2002-2010 vs. 1985-1993 which suggests we won't see new lows and the 74 area should hold.

Weekend Update

2009-11-28T11:15:00.002+02:00

Current Positions

2009-11-25T15:00:00.002+02:00

Current Positions

2009-11-23T10:55:00.004+02:00

Weekend Update

2009-11-21T08:25:00.004+02:00

You could think of shorting the QQQQ

GLD should correct when the USD rise

Current Positions

2009-11-17T17:30:00.004+02:00

Weekend Update

2009-11-14T16:51:00.002+02:00

13/11.. Commitments of Traders Signals:
-Nikkei bullish since Monday, Oct 26.
-S&P cash since Monday, Nov 2.
-Banks bullish since Monday, Nov 9.
-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Oct 26.
-Crude Oil cash since Monday, Nov 2.
-Gold Bullion bearish on Monday, Nov 2.
-30 Year T-Bond cash since Mon, Nov 9.

13/11.. The Elliot Wave Lives On:
SHORT TERM: market bounces back from oversold levels, DOW +73
Support for the SPX moves back to 1090 and then 1061, with resistance at 1107 and then 1133. Short term momentum moved up from oversold levels finishing the day around neutral. Today's retest of SPX 1085 signalled that wave 4 could have completed at today's oversold levels. The market did rally to SPX 1098 but pulled back to 1088 during the afternoon. Expecting another run at the OEW 1107 pivot next week.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market rally

Current Positions

2009-11-12T17:30:00.003+02:00

12/11..The Elliot Wave Lives On: After the SPX failed to make a higher high today, which it had done for six days in a row, the market pulled back. Yesterday the USD rallied, but the market closed higher. Today the USD rally continued and the market gave way. On the short term charts its looks like the SPX completed the third wave up from the 1029 low. If we are still in the rally impulse mode, would expect wave 4 to complete shortly and then another push into the OEW 1107 pivot. This long term pivot is still offering solid resistance, as it should. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market rally

NYSI & TBT

2009-11-11T19:01:00.003+02:00

Treasuries are turning Bearish i.e.Yields Rising

Long Term Investors Watch $NYSI for Turn

Weekend Update

2009-11-07T12:48:00.005+02:00

7/11.. Goldminers are undervalued

Commitments of Traders Signals:

-Nikkei bullish since Monday, Oct 26.

-S&P bearish since Monday, Nov 2.

-Banks bullish on Monday, Nov 9.

-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Oct 26.

-Crude Oil bearish since Monday, Nov 2.

-Gold Bullion bearish on Monday, Nov 2.

-30 Year T-Bond bearish on Mon, Nov 9.

Current Positions

2009-11-06T17:31:00.000+02:00

South African Breweries = SHORT

Harmony Gold (in Rands ) = LONG

Newgold (GLD) in Rands = CLOSED

Weekend Update

2009-10-31T06:52:00.007+02:00

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30/10.. COTS Timer: Yikes! Not a good week. Not at all. At least not if you're a bull. And what say the Commitments of Traders numbers? Holy guacamole. Not good either.
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Commitments of Traders Signals:
-Nikkei bullish since Monday, Oct 26.
-S&P bearish on Monday, Nov 2.
-Banks bearish on Monday, Nov 2.
-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Oct 26.
-Crude Oil bearish since Monday, Oct 19
-Gold Bullion bearish on Monday, Nov 2.
-30 Year T-Bond cash since Mon, Oct 5.

Current Positions

2009-10-30T10:31:00.001+02:00

Update Wednesday 28 October 2009

2009-10-28T07:24:00.004+02:00

27/10.. Prepare to Hedge

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27/10.. S&P500 - Trend still Intact

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27/10.. $NYSI, no cross-over as yet!

10/27 -- Trend Channel Magic: More weakness all around and the QQQQ in particular. There are a number of indexes hitting larger support and others already breaking. Several have steepened from their original downward angle. Brief counter-trend rallies may occur at the mini level, but I expect further downside on this move.

Current Positions

2009-10-26T18:42:00.003+02:00

Weekend Update

2009-10-24T06:48:00.010+02:00

23/10.. The Elliot Wave Lives On: Support for the SPX drops again to 1061 and then 1041, with resistance at 1090 and then 1107. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought this morning and then oversold later in the day. The market continues to swing from overbought to oversold and remains volatile. It still appears that a potential Primary wave B top occurred at SPX 1101. We'll need to see the SPX break below the 1061 pivot and the NDX down to about 1700 to help confirm the downtrend.

24/10.. COTS Timer: What a crappy week if you were a bull. Next week could be all-important for whether the rally's long-anticipated swan dive begins. Or will all the perma-bears out there end up out of luck? On balance, I have to say things don't look good, according to this afternoon's Commitments of Traders data - with two exceptions: the Nikkei & Gold Miners, which just got bullishs signals for Monday's open.

Commitments of Traders Signals:
-Nikkei bullish on Monday, Oct 26.
-S&P bearish on Monday, Nov 2.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas cash on Monday, Oct 26.
-Crude Oil bearish on Monday, Oct 19
-Gold Bullion to cash on Monday, Oct 19.
-Gold Miners bullish on Monday, Oct 26.
-30 Year T-Bond to cash since Mon, Oct 5.

Trend Catching System

2009-10-23T07:12:00.002+02:00

Current Positions

2009-10-22T17:16:00.000+02:00

Weekend Update 17 Oct 2009

2009-10-17T08:02:00.009+02:00

Although the Bank Index in South Africa still hold its head above the March 2009 water, Standard Bank seem to have taken in some. We will now remain cautious since Standard Bank could still shoot through this bearish triangle for more upside, which, to my mind is unlikely!

16/10..The Elliot Wave Lives On: Today's pullback (15 pts) is similar to tuesday's pullback (12 pts). Both are the typical pullbacks for this uptrend. We've marked yesterday's SPX 1097 high as the end of Minute wave 3, and today's action looks to be part of Minute wave 4. From the SPX 1020 low we can now count three waves complete and the fourth underway of the expected five waves for this rally. Since wave 3 was 30 points (1067-1097), then wave 5 can not exceed 30 points or it would make wave 3 the shortest wave. Therefore, adding 30 points to today's 1082 low, if it holds, produces a maximum upside of SPX 1112.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

16/10.. COTS Timer: The S&P 500 small traders have boosted up their net long positioning in futures and options to extreme levels in the past two weeks, according to the Commitments of Traders data released weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That's not a good thing for bulls. The small traders tend to hit extremes in their net positioning just as the market is about to go in the other direction.

Commitments of Traders Signals:
-Nikkei cash since Monday, Sept 14.
-S&P bearish on Monday, Nov 2.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas bearish on Monday, Oct 19.
-Crude Oil bearish on Monday, Oct 19
-Gold Bullion to cash on Monday, Oct 19.
-Gold Miners bullish on Monday, Oct 19.
-30 Year T-Bond to cash since Mon, Oct 5.

AstoCycle.Net Forecasts Updated 21 Oct 2009

2009-10-16T07:15:00.000+02:00

Current Positions

2009-10-16T07:10:00.000+02:00

Current Positions

2009-10-14T13:02:00.007+02:00

Current Positions

2009-10-13T22:23:00.006+02:00

Standard Bank - Another 10% to Go !

2009-10-08T07:01:00.001+02:00

Current Positions

2009-10-07T23:00:00.001+02:00

06/10.. Gold Miners still moving North.

Weekend Update

2009-10-03T11:30:00.007+02:00

02/10.. Commitments of Traders:

-Nikkei cash since Monday, Sept 14.

-S&P bullish since Monday, Aug 24.

-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.

-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Sept 7.

-Crude Oil cash since Monday, Sept 7.

-Gold Bullion cash since Monday, Sept 14.

-Gold Miners bullish on Monday, Oct 5.

Current Positions

2009-10-02T07:40:00.010+02:00

Quantifiable Edges: Bad Ends to the Quarter - This study examined performance after the SPX declined the last 2 days of a quarter. 86% of instances were trading higher 2 days later and the average trade was 1.2%. This suggests a decent upside edge for the next couple of days.
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02/10.. A weaker ZAR is good for Harmony Gold

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23 Sept 2009.. Cyclical Gold Chart Patterns tell me that in the ST, Gold will decline from now ($1,016.30) to between the 7th & 13th October 2007 to decline to around +/- $875 where I will become just a buyer again till 25 Dec 2009, the LT LOW might only come in Ap/June 2010 where I will become a serious buyer again to ride GOLD to its final peak in Jan 2012.

Possible Trend Change Mid-October-2009

2009-09-27T07:00:00.019+02:00

For a while now I have been expecting the market to turn south around the 14/15 Sept 2009. I have three posts to show, 1) Positioning towards December 2009 2) The Big Picture - Post 2 and 3) Uptend may have topped at SPX 1039. In a similar post, The Life of a Bear, I show the opposite view to mine. In the meanwhile, the 14/15th have come and gone without the expected trend change.
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Still, the market still look extended with ST & LT ossiclators all grouped to the top, I now expect the correction around mid-October 2009. ST, upside potential remain less than possible sudden, swift downside potential!
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Based on the above & the post below, I HAVE TAKEN 20% PROFIT OFF THE TABLE EARLY SEPTEMBER 2009 IN MY LONG TERM INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO AND INTEND TO RE-ENTER AGAIN AROUND 9 NOVEMBER 2009.
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Of the people I follow regularly, we now have three who probably don't even know each other suggesting the market should turn mid Octover 2009 compared to historical data.
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[A-a]: Gold, It's All Falling Into Place
Video by Adam Hewison fom Marketclub.com that in part helped me make this statement: "23 Sept 2009.. Cyclical Gold Chart Patterns tell me that in the ST, Gold will decline from now ($1,016.30) to between the 7th & 13th October 2007 to decline to around +/- $875 where I will become just a buyer again till 25 Dec 2009, the LT LOW might only come in Ap/June 2010 where I will become a serious buyer again to ride GOLD to its final peak in Jan 2012.
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[A-b] The Dollar Makes a Major Low in Q4 of 2011
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[B]: The Roffey Review, by Dr Clive Roffey (all his recent reviews). In his 21 Sept 2009 review, Dr. Clive Roffey said: "... the worst is not over, the worst is yet to come... Dow PE-ratios not oversold, it is still too high compared to the last 100 years worth of data & consumer spending is under pressure..." He further went on record saying that HE IS NOW A SELLER OF THE DOW!
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[C]: The Elliot Wave Lives On by Tony Caldaro (all his recent posts). Of all the blogs I read, I always go here first! Tony pointed to the Oct, 2007 crash, the March 2009 ensuing rally and now he is starting to warn.. "If numerology is your game, Primary wave A ended on Mar 6th at SPX 667. Then Primary wave B could end on Oct 13th at SPX 1133. Food for thought".
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[D]: AstroCycle.net Forecasts by Francis Bussiere - althoug I do not have access to his members area, I follow his graphs on StockCharts.com which show his thoughts in the 4 month & 12 month cycle in the SPX. Here Francis point to November 2009 as the 4 month cycle low, this coincide with the Bradley model.
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In the graph above, Francis Bussiere expect the correction south Mid-October 2009 as I do, then to correct north again into December 2009 before futher decline, whereas the Foundation for Cycle expect the uptend from the March 2009 lows to continue till Ap/May 2010 before further decline into June 2011.
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25/09.. Current Trading Position
Bought Harmony Gold at R79.20 on 25 Sept 2009

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27/09.. Commitments of Traders:
-Nikkei cash since Monday, Sept 14.
-S&P bullish since Monday, Aug 24.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Crude Oil cash since Monday, Sept 7.
-Gold Bullion cash since Monday, Sept 21.
-Gold Miners bullish since Monday, Aug 31.
-30 Year T-Bond bearish since Mon, Sept.14.

Weekend Update 19 Sept 2009

2009-09-19T21:40:00.017+02:00

23 Sept 2009.. Cyclical Gold Chart Patterns tell me that in the ST, Gold will decline from now ($1,016.30) to between the 7th & 13th October 2007 to decline to around +/- $875 where I will become just a buyer again till 25 Dec 2009, the LT LOW might only come in Ap/June 2010 where I will become a serious buyer again till ride the GOLD peak to Jan 2012.
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21/9.. JSE-Gold-Mining: MT Uptrending..

18/9.. JSE-Gold-Mining: MT Uptrending..

JSE-Banks: ST Uptrending..>>

The Elliot Wave Lives On: Expecting the SPX to approach the 1090 pivot before Minor wave 3 ends. Minor wave 4 is expected to be short. Fibonacci relationships suggest at SPX 1141 Int. C = Int. A, and at SPX 1158 Major C = Major A. These levels are slightly above the SPX 1122 50% bear market retracement level, however, quite acceptable since Primary wave B has extended in time.

Herman: I have taken 20% off the table on my LT Investing platform.. The Market is Still Going and there were several positives on the economic front this week. The Empire State and Philadelphia manufacturing surveys were up, retail sales were better than expected, housing starts were up and consumer prices rose only less that half a percent. There are a lot of gains this quarter and it (the quarter) ends in 8 trading days so even though this is historically a poor time of year, the institutional holders may try to support prices to finish the quarter. After all Ben Bernanke said that the recession is very likely over at this point. Hooray, every one is bullish so full steam ahead.

Along with the positives from the week there are still a few lingering negatives. There is too much bullishness and when too many people get on the same side of a trade we can run out of buyers - at least short term.

Ben Bernanke in the past told us the financial system can withstand the fallout from the subprime-mortgage market without serious problems. So his statement above carries no credibility.
545,000 more people filed for unemployment for the week, not the mark of an improving economy.
Last month 358,000 received a foreclosure filing - that is one out of every 357 houses.
So far in 2009 92 banks have failed and the Institutional Risk Analytics gives 2,256 failing grades and expects another 900 to fail in this cycle.
A large number of Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) and Option Mortgages are starting to reset and there will be hundreds of thousands in the coming year which may result in the next large wave of foreclosures.
There presently is the highest amount of insider selling of stocks with over $6 billion sold last month. The sell to buy ratio is over 30 to 1.
For the S&P 500, the bullish percent index is again at a new high of 88 - over done ST
On the daily S&P 500 chart, since March this year at P1-up, we see a bearish wedge, however, there may be one more pullback to the lower line and then a new high to complete the 5th-wave move up to SPX 1141 or 1158 and then P2-down should be in.

Current Positions

2009-09-17T21:56:00.001+02:00

The Roffey Review

2009-09-15T13:48:00.003+02:00

- The Roffey Review 14 Sept 2009

Current Positions

2009-09-15T06:36:00.012+02:00

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15/09.. Banks Still Backtesting

16/09..We currently don't hold a Standard Bank position.
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Joining us today is John Bougearel, author of the renowned book Riding the Storm Out. Enjoy as Jon states his case for why the third quarter high may already be in place.

"A nominal new high might be set on Tuesday’s retail sales report before correcting. This possibility detracts nothing from working premise that the stock market is at its weakest moments after retail sales reports this summer, as seen in both July and August. The conclusion is that the downside risks will far outweigh the upside risks near term after the Sept 15 retail sales report, for roughly one month. In other words, this 58% advance off the March 2009 lows will come to a conclusion as the government’s short term stimulus from cash for clunkers no longer gooses the month over month retail sales reports. The only flaw in this analysis is that my recency bias is not validated by subsequent price action and market behavior. Big whoop, I can live with a small margin of error and adjust. So can you in your own risk management strategies".

John Bougearel

Weekend Update 12 Sept 2009

2009-09-12T07:32:00.014+02:00

14/09.. US Dollar

The USD topped in early Mar 09 exactly when the stock markets bottomed. Since then the USD has lost 15% of its value and the US stock market has rallied over 50%. When the current downtrend in the USD ends, as we're getting close, stock markets worldwide may reverse sharply in response to a rally in the USD.

The US Dollar is Key and could have made a short term low at 76.47, below the 0.77 area on the chart above for a Wave B and 8 month cycle low, and should rally back to the highs near 0.90 for the 8 month cycle high of March 2010 and the 4.3 year PI cycle high of July 2010, after the recent deep pull back to mid September 2009 or even possibly more... (I can now count 5-waves down and spot a possible Ending Diagonal Triangle?) Normally, the US Dollar with its inverse relationship to Gold, could start to rise when Gold decline. Since I am also of the view that Inflation is still a year out, I don't expect Gold to move too high, the recent upsurge is purely seasonal! With Tuesday's Commitments of Traders data now pointing to bearish Gold as from Sept 14th, 2009 which could be a warning that we should expect the US Dollar to rise and when the dollar rise, that in it self might be real bad for equities and not just Gold!

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Commitment of Traders: (weekend)
-Nikkei to cash, Monday, Sept 14.
-S&P 500 bullish Monday, Sept 14.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Crude Oil cash since Monday, Sept 7.
-Gold Bullion bearish Monday, Sept 14.
-Gold Miners bullish since Monday, Aug 31.
-30 Year T-Bond bearish Monday, Sept.14.

The Elliot Wave Lives On: (weekend)

SHORT TERM: Support for the SPX remains at 1018, with resistance at 1061 and then 1107. Short term momentum remained quite overbought recently and ended the week at neutral. After a short term top two weeks ago at SPX 1039 the market pulled back to 992. Its largest pullback since the uptrend began in early July. After retesting that low the following day, the market rose to SPX 1048 on friday with no pullback greater than 9 points. After hitting 1048 the SPX pulled back 10 points to 1038 but turned higher to close at 1043. The key level to observe now is SPX 1049. This would indicate a breakout through the 1041 pivot and suggest higher prices ahead. Should the market fail to reach that level and sell off sharply next week. Then the previously mentioned diagonal triangle would be in play. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS: We should note that four of the indices, based upon our long term indicators, may not see their lows again. These are the Brazil, BSE, HSI and the SSEC.

Current Positions 11 Sept 2009

2009-09-11T07:00:00.007+02:00

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11/09.. To hold short, or not to?: Since the SPX made higher high from 1039 to 1044, we are on the wrong side of this short trade! Will we recover lossess? Let's look at Quatifiable Edges by Rob Hanna.. "Tuesday we had this 3-higher closes higher pattern appear in the SPY while SPY volume declined all three days, in the past 82% of such instances posted a close below the entry price at some point in the next 4 days". If this hold true, we stand 82% chance to recover our lossess by waiting a fraction longer!!
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10/09.. Will Re-Enter Harmony Gold Miner (HMY) on Monday 14th Sept 2009
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10/09.. Daneric: FTSE Broke above 5K today. Look at the A-B-C "three" pattern since the March lows. C = A at 5156. Thats only another 3%. (LOL - its gonna feel like a 30%) And at that point resistance is tremendous. We are getting close!!
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Downside Target = R90.00
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Upside Target for W-1 = R99.50 to 109.00

US Dollar, Gold & Crude Oil Cycles

2009-09-09T09:00:00.005+02:00

U.S. Dollar:

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4/09.. The U.S. Dollar came close to the 0.77 area for a Wave B down and its 8 month cycle low and should rally back to the highs near 0.90 for the 8 month cycle high of March 2010 and the 4.3 year PI cycle high of July 2010.
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The foundation for cycle studies graph point the U.S. Dollar down hard into late 2012.
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Gold Bullion:

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4/09.. After a test of the previous highs or break thereoff, Gold should pull back to the 850 area by December for the 4.3 year cycle high in the US Dollar before a large Wave 3 rally to the 2,000-3,000 level starts in 2010 and run through to Jan 2012.
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The foundation for cycle studies graph point towards a major low for Gold around May/June 2010 and a cycle high around Jan 2012.
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Crude Oil:

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4/09.. Crude Oil is going parabolic and reached a geometric convergence near the 5.5-11 month cycle and will probably start to pull back towards the 50's by November 2009.
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The foundation for cycle studies graph point to a top in Crude Oil around May 2010.

Weekend Update 09 Sept 2009

2009-09-04T22:55:00.024+02:00

08/09.. Banks (BKX)

9/9.. The 50 ma is in danger off crossing over the 200 ma!!
Banks are bearish!

Current Positions

The US dollar with very little movement for the week may have completed a wave five down, but may also have to test further lows. If so we expect support at 75 to 76. The Bradley Model expect a major turn in the market around 14/15 Sept which seems to be inline with a possible dollar rally around that time frame.

The US Dollar came close to the 0.77 area for a Wave B and 8 month cycle low in July, and should rally back to the highs near 0.90 for the 8 month cycle high of March 2010 and the 4.3 year PI cycle high of July 2010, after this deep pull back in August 2009.
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07/09..Commitments of Traders:
Please note that this COT information was obtained before Wednesday's GOLD rally!! Further, note that in the long term I am a GOLD bull due to future inflation, not now though, I see the recent GOLD miners bull rally as cyclical to continue for 6 months and are in fact bearish on GOLD in the short term, because, when the US dollar start rising soon, we should see GOLD falling to +/-$875. To see why I think the recent GOLD miners move is part of a cyclical move. View Harmony Gold's 12 month cycle here..
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GOLD should pull back to the $875 area by December for the 4.3 year cycle high in the US Dollar before a large Wave 3 rally to the 2,000-3,000 level starts in 2010.
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Gold stocks (XAU) pulled back from the 14 month cycle high but are making higher highs towards the 7 month cycle high of September 22nd, and are likely to decline to the 100 area into the December 4.3 year cycle high in the US Dollar.
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-Nikkei bullish since Monday, Aug 17.
-S&P bullish on Monday, Sept 7.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Crude Oil cash on Monday, Sept 7.
-Gold Bullion cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Gold Miners bullish since Monday, Aug 31.
-30 Year T-Bond bearish on Mon, Sept.14.
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Fri 4 Sept .. The Elliot Wave Lives On: Today's rally put the market back on track for the short term scenario we have noted during the week. Read Post-1 & Post-2. Should this relationship continue, the market should gap down on tuesday, (monday holiday), and exceed wednesday's SPX 992 low. Today's rally also puts the potential Primary wave B top in an interesting situation. The market declined from SPX 1039 to 992, and then held support at the important OEW 990 pivot. The two day rally has pushed the SPX from 992 to 1016, and close to the OEW 1018 pivot. This 24 point rally represents a 50% retracement of the initial decline. Should the market break through the 1018 pivot (1026), this would exceed the normal retracement for the beginning of a downtrend, and would indicate something else was unfolding.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped at SPX 1039
LONG TERM: bear market

Uptrend may have topped at SPX 1039 - post-2

2009-09-03T06:31:00.007+02:00

View post-1 here.. and see how we altered our positions accordingly. Also read our prior warnings about a possible trend change due around 14/15 Sept 2009 here..

02/09.. The Elliot Wave Lives On: This morning the market made another low at SPX 992 for this decline from SPX 1039. This is a 47 point decline, the largest since the uptrend began in early July. The SPX is now nearing and testing the OEW 990 pivot. When this area breaks, the uptrend and the bear market rally are likely over. The short term scenario we have been following continues to unfold as expected. We made a lower low this morning, and the market should now bounce into friday. Then starting next week we should be greeted with another gap down to lower lows. This is the action that occurred after the SPX 956 uptrend high in June.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped at SPX 1039
LONG TERM: bear market
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02/09..Trend Channel Magic: Downward momentum continued on the equity indexes. VIX futures moved up, establishing almost as much premium again as there was in the last few weeks (the drop in the market closed the premium in the futures as the spot VIX climbed). In other words, teh VIX people now expect more declines in teh next month.
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Market May Have Topped Earlier Than Anticipated, As Initially Expected Around 14/15 Sept 2009

2009-09-01T06:18:00.014+02:00

Read this post in conjunction with 'Position towards December 2009'
See how we altered our Current Positions from 31 Aug to 01 Sept 2009
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MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high at SPX 1039 (56%)
LONG TERM: bear market (SPX 600 or lower)
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28/08.. The Elliot Wave Lives On: As of friday, the SPX has rallied 56% and retraced 41%. Therefore it has met the minimum requirements. During the Primary wave B rally the market has taken the form of a zigzag again. During this bear market every uptrend, and there have been seven of them, has ended at a long term OEW pivot. Back in March with the SPX around 700, we projected that Primary wave B would end at either the SPX 1041 pivot or the SPX 1107 pivot. This week the market ran into trouble at the 1041 pivot. On monday the SPX stalled at 1036, tuesday at 1038 and on friday at 1039. The range for these pivots are +/- seven points, i.e. 1041 pivot = 1034-1048. Should the SPX exceed this range it could then rally to the 1107 pivot, before ending Primary wave B. Primary wave C is still expected to either retest the SPX 667 low, or break further into the SPX 400 area. The next few months ahead should be quite interesting.
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31/08.. The Elliot Wave Lives On : Coming off the SPX 1039 uptrend high the market pulled back 23 points into today's low. This pullback is the second largest of the uptrend, only exceeded by the 39 point decline between Intermediate waves A and B. The OEW 1018 pivot is important, and a print at 1010 and lower would confirm a break of that support. The next OEW pivot at 990 is the more important one. A break of that pivot would indicate that this uptrend and the bear market rally are likely over. Today's gap down was similar to the monday gap down following the SPX 956 uptrend high in June. Should the similarity continue the market should rally a few points above today's close before making a lower daily low tomorrow. Best to your trading!
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01/09.. The Elliot Wave Lives On: The market continues to follow the potential Primary wave B August top scenario. The uptrend hit its high at SPX 1039, right at the long term 1041 pivot last week. The flat daily closing action during the week also suggested a top, along with negative divergences in daily and some weekly US index charts, see weekend update. The monday gap down short term scenario was followed with the expected lower daily low today. The market has broken through initial support at the 1018 pivot and is now approaching the more important 990 pivot. Should this be broken as well, it looks like we can likely put the completion of the bear market rally in the books. The VIX, btw, has confirmed its first uptrend (more volatility) since early March when the bear market rally began. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped at SPX 1039
LONG TERM: bear market
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01/09.. Trend Channel Magic: The move that the VIX futures have been predicting for weeks is now upon us. In two days VIX has jumped more than 4 points. We have broken green short term upchannels that are now solid purple downtrends on the major and sector indexes. We may have hit the lower lines today suggesting a bit of a bounce tomorrow, but don't mistake that for an uptrend -- this is not done on the downside -- it is a more serious change in momentum and is right in line with the seasonal weakness of Sep/Oct. The markets were constrained by the one year green up channels and are correcting. Several have broken blue mini channels on those long term charts now. I predict we will see a move akin to the June/July decline over the next month.
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Weekend Update 31 Aug 2009

2009-08-30T20:35:00.010+02:00

Current Positions

31/08.. Herman: The gold bugs unhedged gold stocks chart ran about to the upper trendline on Friday, as did the GDM-to-gold ratio chart in the upper section of the chart below. If that chart breaks to the upside it is good for gold stocks and they should then begin to out perform gold metal.
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Click here for our current position in Harmony Gold
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30/08.. Stock Tiger: Despite the calls of a topping action in the market there is no sign yet that the dip buyers have diminished. They after such a strong move generally stay aggressive until their buying fails to work a few times. So far, buying pullbacks, even small ones, has been profitable. The chart below has the New York stock exchange index on the top in red as it nears the first level trendline. In the latter half is the bullish percentage of stocks on the NYSE and that ended at close to 81%.
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30/08..Commitments of Traders:
-Nikkei bullish since Monday, Aug 17.
-S&P to cash on Monday, Aug 31.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas bearish since Monday, Aug 10.
-Crude Oil bearish on Monday, Sept 7.
-Gold Bullion cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Gold Miners bullish on Monday, Aug 31.
-30-Year T-Bond bearish on Mon, Sept.14.

For an updated chart, click here..

30/08.. The Elliot Wave Lives On: SHORT TERM - Support for the SPX remains at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum finished around neutral on friday. The short term count from the mid-August SPX 979 low appears to be five waves. This could complete Intermediate wave C at a 0.382 relationship to Intermediate wave A. We noted in the review that the market traded relatively flat on a closing basis all week. The last time this occurred was at the SPX 956 Intermediate wave A top during the week of June 8th. This was followed by a gap down on monday as Intermediate wave B was underway. When the SPX breaks the 1018 pivot we'll get more evidence that the top is in. Should the SPX hit 1049 or higher Intermediate wave C is likely extending to the next OEW pivot. We should get the answer this week.

Current Positions 03 Sept 2009

2009-08-27T06:53:00.014+02:00

03/09.. Will ad to my current SBK short tomorrow!

Switched from long AGL to Short SBK on 01/09
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Anglo dipped south visciously on 31/08 just to spike back on 01/09, that was a clear sign our counts on AGL were wrong and as per Tony Caldaro's warning at The Elliot Wave Lives On, we bailed out of AGL for a small loss and opened a short position in Standard Bank instead. Read more about Tony Caldaro's warning here!!

01/09.. Harmony Gold still on, its a 6 month play!

Life of a Bear (Aug/Sept 2010)

2009-08-24T19:19:00.012+02:00

Sept 2009 - The chart shows how the stock market has climbed at the same time that the Federal Reserve has monetized the debt by purchasing U.S. Treasuries and government-backed debt securities.

USA to follow Japan's woes for 20 yrs

01/09.. Japan is still reeling from the bad mortgages of its Real Estate Bubble of 1990, and the US amounts are even larger and were sold all over the World, suggesting the USA and the rest of the World will struggle for the next 20 years or more, before all this bad paper is absorbed by taxpayers. If you look at the overlay graph above and we assume the world will follow Japan as it looks like its doing so thus far, notice then that although we can expect lower highs, the current bear market rally might not be over just yet!
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28/08.. For some perspective on the current stock market rally and how it compares the 1929-1932 bear market this chart illustrates the duration (calendar days) and magnitude (percent gain) of all significant Dow rallies that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market (solid blue dots). For example, the bear market rally that began in November 1929 lasted 155 calendar days and resulted in a gain of 48%. As this chart illustrates, the duration of the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot labeled you are here) is longer than any that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market. As for magnitude, only the November 1929 bear market rally resulted in a better performance than what has occurred during the current rally to date.
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21/08.. Morgan Stanley recently evaluated the performance of 19 bear markets in different countries around the world. It’s a comprehensive list that includes the bear market in Switzerland during the 1960s, Japan in the 1990s and Australia in the 1980s, among others.

What they found is that the median fall from a market’s peak is 56% and lasts 29 months. The S&P fell 58% over 18 months from its peak in October 2007. U.S. markets have rebounded roughly 54% in five months from March lows to 21 Aug 2009, but the median bear market rebound is 70% over 17 months. This suggests the market rally still has some legs to say Aug/Sept 2010.

Weekend Update 22 Aug 2009

2009-08-22T06:37:00.007+02:00

21/08..Commitments of Traders:
-Nikkei bullish since Monday, Aug 17.
-S&P bullish since Monday, Aug 24.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Crude Oil bearish on Monday, Sept 7.
-Gold Bullion cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Gold Miners bullish on Monday, Aug 17.
-30yr Bond Yield bearish since Mon, Aug 17.

22/08..Trend Channel Magic:

You can say what you want about being catapulted upward by a falling dollar and excess worldwide liquidity that has nowhere else to go, and you can rile about the excessive valuations in stocks right now, but the facts remain: equity indexes have gapped up through the short term purple downtrends now and a new short term upleg is in progress. Some of the blue minis actually accelerated due to the vertical move in a matter of minutes, but the hourlies all broke upward as well. There may be a retest of the purple as a corrective leg takes hold, but that is not an absolute. The longer term charts come into play here again now. Green upchannels on the one-year charts are being approached again and could push higher (the FTSE actually pushed its green to a steeper slope already.) And the blue minis on one-year charts are still intact. (They may be the best indicators here as you cannot draw channels that wide on the shorter term charts.) The VIX futures (nearly 5 pts premium in the Octobers) are a constant reminder that seasonal factors weigh heavily on the market in Sept-October).

22/08..The Elliot Wave Lives On:
SHORT TERM - Support for the SPX is now at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum is extremely overbought. Intermediate wave C of Major wave C should unfold in five waves. From the recent Intermediate wave B low (SPX 979) on monday, we're counting the rally to SPX 991 on tuesday as Minor wave 1, and the pullback to SPX 981 on wednesday as Minor wave 2. The rally from that low certainly looks like a third wave, and we're labeling it Minor wave 3. Early next week we expect a small pullback for Minor wave 4, and then a rally to the OEW 1041 pivot for Minor wave 5. This should conclude Primary wave B. Should the SPX break through the 1041 pivot (SPX 1049), then a further push to the 1061 pivot would appear likely. Remember, we're expecting Primary wave B to end this month. If it does not, then an extended Major wave C is most likely underway. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new highs
LONG TERM: bear market

Current Positions Updated 27 Aug 2009

2009-08-18T13:08:00.040+02:00

26/08.. Adam Hewison, Market Club Video
Monthly, Weekly & Daily Trade Triangles still a BUY

26/08.. Trend Channel Magic: Unfortunately, today's action did not advance our knowledge of the current trend enough to draw new short term channels or even minichannels. Almost all indexes have exited their blue mini channels sideways, and most have formed a pennant rather than a parallel channel thus far. That pennant looks like a triangle, but will ultimately resolve as a parallel channel. The trouble is that we don't know which way. So rather than guess or draw both alternatives, I haven't drawn any new minis yet. Stay tuned.

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SPX's 5th wave just started or down to red!

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Should re-enter Standard Bank 27th, sometime!

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Can you steer the cource for 6 months!!

Long HAR since 14 Aug 2009

FTSE Xinhua China 25 ETF

2009-08-17T15:48:00.006+02:00

Below is an updated chart of the FXI, showing the very powerful rally that has occurred since late March/early April.
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My view based on this chart: Although China (Asian) markets are likely to pull back in the short term, massive technical support is building under the market, indicating Asian markets remain very healthy on a long-term basis. Furthermore, once a pullback is out of the way, a renewed rally should begin in most Asian stock markets, especially China.
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Here too, the cycle projection for the FXI confirms a pullback, some sideways trading, then yet another powerful leg to the upside.

By Larry Edelson at Uncommon Wisdom Daily

The Big Picture - Post 1

2009-08-17T09:01:00.017+02:00

BreakPointTrades.com - Monthly

BreakPointTrades.com - Weekly

BreakPointTrades.com - Daily

BreakPointTrades.com 60 min

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SPX: LT & ST ossilators are all grouping atop.
Gold: LT & ST ossilators are all grouping below.

Gold Miners: Ossilators are all grouping below.
COTS setup to cash on Monday, Aug 31st.
COTS setup bullish on Monday, Sept 07.
Bradley Model show cycle turn 14/15 Sept 2009.
Bradley Model show cycle turn 22/23 Oct 2009.
Bradley Model show cycle turn 9 November 2009.
Bradley Model show cycle turn April/May 2010.
HOUSING CYCLE – bottom Aug 2009, high 2020.

Weekend Update 15 Aug 2009

2009-08-15T13:30:00.024+02:00

15/08..Commitments of Traders:
-Nikkei bullish on Monday, Aug 17.
-S&P bullish on Monday, Aug 24.
-Banks cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Nat Gas cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Crude Oil bearish on Monday, Sept 7.
-Gold Bullion cash since Monday, Aug 10.
-Gold Miners bullish on Monday, Aug 17.
-30yr Bond Yield bearish on Mon, Aug 17.
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15/08.. Market Club: Keep a careful eye on the MACD, major technical indicator on the S&P500 indicate a Sell.. video by Adam
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15/08.. Trend Channel Magic: The great pause continues as both bulls & bears duke it out to position themselves for the next move. Friday's drop was the biggest in a while by mid-day, but nearly half of that decline was erased by the close. There is clearly more money that seizes each decline to come off the interest-poor sidelines to get on the equity train. Yet we are also just as clearly overbought now on technical terms, and it is widely acknowledged that the market has already built in a hefty amount of optimism that the economy is turning this quarter. What it all amounts to is the stalemate we are seeing as black horizontal channels in the short term charts. The market has thus reached an equilibrium of sorts on the basis of the current outlook. The bulls see minimal upside here until the economy proves that it has turned the corner and until the 2010 earnings picture is more visible. The bears know that while a short term overbought situation exists, a pullback will hardly retrace the lows we were at when the economy was still heading into an abyss earlier this year. The Markets don't remain in equilibrium very long, however. New information will inevitably tip the scale one way or another in short order. For your reference, my colleague Larry McMillan was quoted in two Barron's articles this weekend. One article noted: 'During the week, McMillan Analysis told clients, their study showed an 89% correlation between the two years [2009 and 1938]. 'For the record, a late-July top in 1938 saw a modest decline to a late-September bottom, after which prices skyrocketed to new yearly highs by November: 58% off the March lows of that year,' the firm said its research shows.'
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14/08..Volume Low & Price High Often Leads to a Pullback This would suggest a pullback over the next few days is likely. While the pullback hasn’t necessarily been severe, it has been consistent.
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14/08..The Elliot Wave Lives On adapted by Herman: For the first time in five weeks, since the uptrend began, the market failed to make a new uptrend high. We marked the SPX 1018 intermediate high as the end of Intermediate wave A. We're expecting this uptrend, from the SPX 869 low, to unfold in three Intermediate waves, Intermediate-A-up (completed at 1018), -B-down (now underway, possibly 961 by Fri, Aug 21) and then -C up (from Aug 24 to 14/15 Sept 2009). If 990 break, expect 961 to hold. Should the SPX drop to the 961 pivot, a rally to the 1041 pivot for Intmediate wave C-up should commence.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend to 14/15 Sept 2009 to end Primary wave-C
LONG TERM: bear market back to 600
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14/08..As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt Bank Failure Friday is in full swing. Tonight there were 5 more failures, numbers 73 through 77 on the year. BB&T Acquires Colonial as Regulators Close Five U.S. Lenders. FDIC’s Shrinking Deposit Insurance Fund – A Testimony of Current Accounting Standards.
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14/08..Dollar On The Move: Alright, this is officially bad news for the bulltards. This is starting to look like the type of candles I have been warning about. A breach of 79.4 would be final confirmation that a third wave up is in the works. And if that happens the bulls better break out the winter clothes on Monday.
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13/08..Kenny's Market Update: A clear violation of the reversal marker of last week's 992.49 has yet to materialize, but prices should work lower in the weeks to come... This raises the odds that the USD has bottomed... I suggest either adding to or initiating Gold and/or Silver shorts that look right on the USD Minute wave [ii] pullback if things proceed as they are now.
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Current Positions:

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14/08.. Volume Surge and Elliott Waves Hint Reversal in UUP Dollar, By Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Positioning 14/15 Sept to 9 Nov 2009

2009-08-14T12:22:00.032+02:00

04/09.. AstroCycle.net: Wave 5 down should take us to new lows in 2009-2010
The start of each major wave down since the all time high of October 07 can be seen clearly in the high Call/Put lines and is confirmed with the Tick lines and other momentum indicators. All indicators are turning from high levels reached in August and warning that Wave 5 down may already have started or should start in September. The Nasdaq and both Tick lines have been climbing for 9 months since their last low together on November 21st and confirming that the move from November 21st is what i would call an A-B-C-D-E which appears complete with the August 28th high. The green Slope line is already turning down, and suggesting a good decline into the next 33 week cycle low of October 23rd, and the 2 month cycle low of November 7th. We are at the same price levels as in 2003, but with very different fundamentals and those who expect the same outcome as 2003 should be in for a surprise. The fundamentals erased a 5 year Bull market in a single year, and it can erase this 5 or 9 month rally in very little time.

01/09.. Trend Change earlier than expected!
Backtest can still take us to 14/15 Sept 09 (SPX 1026)

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31/08.. Road-Map to 14/15 Sept 2009
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17/08.. Cycle Studies indicate the DOW can still go to 10,000+ by 14/15 Sept 2009. This gives us another month to profit in a northerly direction, as from 14/15 September 2009 to at least late October 2009 we can expect a substantial correction, unlike the ones we have seen in 2009. Cycle studies show that the market will again head north from late October or early November 2009 through to April/May 2010. More on this by Larry Edelson at Uncommon Wisdom Daily.
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What to do around 14/15 Sept 2009!
SHORT GENERAL MARKET around 14/15 Sept 2009
GO LONG GOLD MINERS from now to end October 2009
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-COTS setup to go bullish on Mon, Aug 24th.
-COTS setup to cash on Monday, Aug 31st.
-COTS setup bullish on Monday, Sept 07.
-Bradley Model show cycle turn 14/15 Sept 2009.
-Bradley Model show cycle turn 22/23 Oct 2009.
-Bradley Model show cycle turn 9 November 2009.
-Bradley Model show cycle turn April/May 2010.
-HOUSING CYCLE – bottom Aug 2009, high 2020.
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10/08.. Roffey Review

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17/08.. Roffey Review

Watch The Roffey Review 17 Aug 2009
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31/08.. Over 100% in next 6 months!!

Read more about the seasonality of Gold here..

Friday Update 14 Aug 2009

2009-08-09T14:01:00.020+02:00

THE TREND MIGHT CHANGE IN SEPTEMBER!!

13/08..The Elliot Wave Lives On: Last week's high at SPX 1018 looked like a good place for this uptrend to pause. It was right at an OEW pivot and there were plenty of negative divergences. The market pulled back until tuesday and SPX 992, but held the OEW 990 pivot and has rallied again. We are maintaining the labeling that SPX 1018 was the end of Intermediate wave A, and now we are even considering that SPX 992 was all there was to Intermediate wave B correction. Twenty six points is quite a shallow retracement after a 149 point rally (SPX 869-1018). But the pullback did put the daily RSI back to neutral, which marked the end of Intermediate wave A of the last uptrend (Mar-Jun). Let's see how this week ends and take a closer look over the weekend. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

13/08..SPX 1min, could shoot north here!!

For an updated chart, click here..

We are short Investec Bank, see chart below, SST is overbought i.t.o. 14 day reading, however that does not mean the stock cannot go higher, it can!!
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We will be watching the SPX 1min and the 14 day SST on INL today for any further advance and swing our position from south to north if need be and hope its not a false signal. According to Commitments of Traders, Commercials are bullish from Monday 24th Aug onwards, which leaves us with only one week left in our current short position. By the weekend we will know for sure what to do and make adjustments on Monday Aug, 17th if necessary.
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Commitments of Traders:
Correction should last for two weeks.
1.. S&P500 to bullish for Monday, Aug. 24.
2.. Financials to cash for Monday, Aug.10.
3.. Crude Oil to cash on Monday Sept. 7.
4.. Gold Bullion to cash on Monday, Aug.10
5.. Nikkei to cash on Monday, Aug.10.

THE KISS PRINCIPLE - 08 Sept 2009

2009-08-08T07:58:00.017+02:00

8/09.. Herman: Personally, with my Long Term Investments, I took 20% profit 1 Sept 2009 and intend to re-enter again 9 Nov 2009 inline with the Bradley Model.
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31/08.. Stock Tiger: We still feel we are in a bear market in that we have not yet corrected or entered a C wave down. However, in this chart, which does not show price, but only the S&P 500 13 and 34-weeks EMA. In the past when the 13-week is below the 34-week and the MACD is under the zero line we have been in a bear market. When the opposite is true we have been in a bull market. Now, however, we do have a positive MACD, and we have seen the moving average crossover. So this goes against this particular KISS definition.
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The KISS principle STATS (not so good!)

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21/08..The Elliot Wave Lives On:
LONG TERM: bear market
We are currently in a Supercycle, or best case Cycle, bear market. Historically, in the US, these types of bear markets last anywhere from 23 months (1973-1974) and 60 months (1937-1942). The Supercycle bear market of 1929-1932 lasted 34 months. Outside of the US, Japan has been in a Supercycle bear market for 20 years (1989-....).

The decline from the October 07 high to the recent March 09 low took seventeen months. If the Supercycle/Cycle bear market ended there it would be the shortest on record. Most of these types of bear markets unfold in three waves. In the first wave the market loses about 50% of its value, confirming the degree of the bear market. Lesser degree bear markets do not lose this much value. The second wave rallies about 50% from the lows, giving hope that the bear market is over. Then during the third wave the market loses another 50% of its value, and this usually ends it. From Oct07 (SPX 1576) to Mar09 (SPX 667) the SPX lost 58% of its value, we labeled this decline as Primary wave A. Over the past five months the SPX has rallied 54% to 1028 on friday. We have been labeling this entire rally as Primary wave B. Wave B rallies, in this type of bear market usually rally 50% off the lows, and can even retrace 50% of the decline, i.e. 1929-1932 and 1937-1942.

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Upon completion of Primary wave B the next wave down, Primary C takes hold. In the 1937-1942 Cycle bear market, it retested the lows. In the 1929-1932 Supercycle bear market, it paused at the lows and then broke much lower. Currently we favor the latter scenario.
We have been monitoring the relationship between a more recent bear market and our current bear market. In that bear market one Primary downwave took seventeen months, the other Primary downwave took ten months, and there was a five month Primary upwave in between. Our bear market is following the same track: Primary A seventeen months, Primary B five months so far. Should this relationship continue, our Primary wave B should end this month, and Primary wave C should bottom in June 2010. Also of note, in the historical model, both Primary downwaves wiped out an equal percentage of market value. This would suggest that the SPX will lose another 58% of its value from the Primary wave B high, during Primary C. Primary wave A wiped out 58% of market value.

During Primary wave B we have maintained an upside target of between SPX 1002 (50% rally), and SPX 1122 (50% retracement). We projected these levels when the SPX was in the low 700's in March. It appeared quite outrageous to most at the time as bearish sentiment was abundant. Now that we have reached the targeted range the tables have turned. Bullish sentiment is quite abundant. In fact, one of our OEW members Martin N. alerted us to the Aug09 Merrill Lynch portfolio manager survey. Fund managers are the most bullish they have been since November 2003, and their expectations for corporate profits are the best since January 2004. That was the top of Primary wave III in the last bull market: http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2009/08/17/daily55.html?ana=from_rss. This is the appropriate level of bullishness to end a Primary wave. When Primary C gets underway in earnest most will be stunned. Personally, I hate to see people lose money. So please feel free to post part or all of this weekend update wherever you wish.

Commitments of Traders & Bradley:

S&P should correct through to Aug 21, 2009.

COT S&P setup to bullish on Monday, Aug 24th.

COT S&P setup to cash on Monday, Aug 31st.

COT S&P setup to bullish on Monday, Sept 07.

Bradley Model show cycle turn 14/15 Sept 2009.

Bradley Model show cycle turn 22/23 Oct 2009.

Bradley Model show cycle turn 9 November 2009.

Bradley Model show cycle turn April/May 2010.

HOUSING CYCLE – bottom Aug 2009, high 2020.

Thursday Update 06 Aug 2009

2009-07-30T09:18:00.061+02:00

Dow Gives Monthly Buy Signal …
by LARRY EDELSON on August 6, 2009

06/08.. The Elliot Wave Lives On: Todays decline from SPX 1008 to 992 represents the largest pullback since the uptrend began at 869 on July 8th. We noted yesterday that the previous six mini-pullbacks could be counted as a completed five waves, on the next new high. That high occurred today. With the techs continuing to weaken in price and the USD displaying a bounce, the market may provide a much larger pullback if support at the OEW 990 pivot is broken. Best to your trading!

Banks already started correcting.
Banks set to correct C-down.
Investec played catch-up relative to banks.
Investec still need to correct A-down.

05/08.. Short Investec

03/08.. T2112 % of stocks trading 2 std dev above MA40

03/08.. Most Overdone Breadth In At Least 23 Years

03/08.. In Indicator Suggesting Short-term Downside

27/07.. Roffey Review Video: There might be some upside left in the Dow Jones to 10,000 & NASDAQ 2200, but the short and long term ossilators are starting to group to the top, nearing huge overhead resistance, whereas $Gold's ossilators are grouping at the bottom signaling a BUY comming up.

01/08.. Commitments of Traders:

- S&P 500: The small traders got bearish in Friday afternoon's data, but still not quite enough to trigger my S&P 500 trading setup to go bullish. (It's now in cash.)

- BKX U.S. Bank Index: My trading setup for U.S. banks remains long for the fourth consecutive week. That's no easy feat considering it's based on three different groups of traders, all of whom must be positioned in the same direction in the same timeframe for me to take a trade in this market. The setup has been in cash 74 percent of the time since 1995, and the last time it was in the market for four weeks was four years ago. Ride the lightning.

- Natural gas: It's been a wild ride, and it's coming to an end at next week's open of trading. With all the ups and downs, it sure seems like a lot more than three weeks, but hey, that's what it's like to try to hang on in one of the most volatile markets under the sun. It's one of the reasons for my smaller position size in this market. The setup goes to cash next week 3 Aug, after three weeks bullish.

- Crude: All on track for this setup to stay bullish for at least four weeks, starting the open of trading Monday, Aug. 10. The varying trade delays of the two signals in this setup mean it will remain long four weeks minimum... and counting. The commercials and small traders - both of whom I'd trading alongside in this market - remain comfortably far from their signal lines to reverse the trade.

- Nikkei: My setup for Japan's stock average goes briefly to cash the week of Aug. 10, then back to bullish for four weeks, and now, based on today's data, back to cash after that. The large speculators, whom I trade alongside in this market, have suddenly hit the brakes in their Nikkei futures and options positioning, flipping their signal to the short side. That move won't take effect, however, for six more weeks.

Monday Update 27 July 2009 ZA time

2009-07-22T10:28:00.055+02:00

29/07.. Closed Standard Bank Short

Market Top?.. The image below predict an imminent market top, maybe next week.

I on the other hand just see a correction for now and a real top around 14/15 Sept 2009.

Monday 27th/07.. Banks Broke-Out!

Monday 27th/07..

Could form an inverse H&S's RS here!!

23/07.. The Evil Speculator: I don’t pat my own shoulder very often but I think I was on fire today and handled this crazy day like the pro I aspire to be. Once you cancel out the fear and just do what needs to be done it all comes naturally. The final trick is to trade the tape you see - not the one you hope for - remember I projected some wave {1} and wave {3} fibs last night? Well, we bounced off the 50% multiple of Minute wave {3} today - almost exactly. Coincidence? I think not!

As I said last night - I can only mark my charts where a turn around might happen - but there are no guarantees as we have long left the physical universe in which free market forces of supply and demand matter. The liquidity pump was working full throttle today again. But then - sometime late this afternoon - some big shoe stepped onto the fire hose and buying pressure suddenly diminished. The humble drop we got into the close frankly is not worth writing home about but it might be a first sign of weakness. A little pullback at this point sure would feel nice.

27/07.. Stock Tiger: With such large gains from the March low there are some more conservative and responsible investors who are booking some profits on the strength as the cash can be used at another time. We expect this week to see a more significant pullback. On our multi-index chart notice that all of the indexes on Thursday moved above the top Bollinger band. Typically, when this happens, they either pull back or at a minimum go sideways for a time to separate the candle from the band. The Dow monthly chart shows it is nearing its 38% retrace at 9414

2009
SPX 979.29 Stong Bearish Divergence

2008
SPX 1375.93 Strong Bearish Divergence

21/07.. Standard Bank Short

29/07.. Closed Standard Bank Short

26/07.. The Elliot Wave Lives On:
Thus far it looks as though it is in the fifth wave up from the SPX 869 low, and there is resistance just overhead at the 990 pivot. Should it top there, a quick pullback would be in order of about 50 points. Therefore we could envision a 990 OEW pivot top, and then a pullback to the 935 OEW pivot. Right now we continue to have negative divergences on all timeframes from one hour or less, and an overbought condition on all timeframes of daily and more.

27/07.. Today's early morning rally to SPX 982 approached the 990 OEW pivot and was immediately turned away. Another attempt was made late in the day. This market continues to work its way higher on weaker and weaker upside momentum. Should the SPX drop below today's lows, the likelihood of a substantial pullback will increase. We continue to count this rally as noted in the weekend report. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

27/07.. COTS Timer:
The S&P 500 is going back to cash on 27th Monday's open. Natural gas, after a nice little run, is sadly going to cash on the following Monday's open Aug. 3. Crude Oil is still on track for a bullish run, now to last three weeks at least, starting Aug. 10. The BKX U.S. Bank Index is still on fire and looking hotly bullish for a third week in a row. And more bullish news for the Nikkei, too. Oh yes, and the 30-year Treasury data is starting to line up quite bullishly (meaning the yield to decline), though not ready to move yet. But another disappointing week for gold bugs: My setup has been in cash for a while, and now the data's gotten even less bullish.

Weekend Update 18 July 2009 ZA time

2009-07-18T11:46:00.030+02:00

The Elliot Wave Lives On:
LONG TERM: bear market
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have ended, NDX/NAZ uptrending.
We have reviewed the NDX/NAZ charts over the past seven years. There have only been two occassions when the NDX/NAZ have deviated from the SPX/DOW, and both times they lagged. Probabilities favor that the NDX/NAZ are leading this market, and the SPX/DOW will confirm uptrends soon.
COMMODITIES:
Bonds dropped 2.0% on the week and still appear to be uptrending.
Crude rallied 7.8% this week while remaining in a downtrend.
Gold gained 2.7% this week and may have bottomed recently at $905, but no uptrend confirmation yet.
The Euro (+1.2%) and USD (-0.9%) have been going sideways for more than a month. The USD appears to be weakening.

20/7.. Stock Tiger: It now looks like the one month pullback on the S&P 500 completed the minor b wave down and we have started minor wave c. up. This will be confirmed if it makes a new yearly high. This move could eventually take the index back to the 200 week EMA near 1166 the even number 1000 would be strong resistance..

17/7.. COTS Timer: All Systems Go, Market Ready to Bounce
- S&P 500: My trading setup for SPX goes bullish on Monday's open of trading, after seven weeks in cash. It'll be a short-lived trade, lasting just one week before the setup goes to cash.
- BKX U.S. Bank Index: U.S. financials had a great ol' time this past week, and the good times look like they're still on.
- Natural gas: It remains in bullish mode this coming week, too. Large speculator and small trader total open interest remains very buoyant and shows no signs of breaking down.
- Crude oil: Derivatives positioning in black gold remains on track for a prolonged bullish period starting in mid-August (by "prolonged," I mean at least two weeks and counting). I've got a coming bullish signal for the open of Aug. 10..

For 20/7.. The Smart Trader: Market is in bullish mode and ST trend is up for now. We could go to spx 956 again depending on next week's earnings. LONG POSITIONS ARE RISKY HERE.

17/07.. Mclarenreport: S&P 500 index advance again for the fourth straight day. This could be exhaustive but it is coming off a low that should test the June high and possible run to 1007 at 3/8 of the range of the bear campaign. There are two tests of the lows to establish the sideways movement and now a test of the highs for two test of resistance.

17/07.. AstroCycle predict spx to 963.66

July 18th, 2009 at 1:31 am The Evil Speculator:
Is the H&S Really Over?.. I was one of the few bulls going into last weekend holding longs when everybody else was expecting the market to drop off the cliff, and now I am expecting a big drop on Monday based on the above H&S pattern formation below together with my bull/bear cycle work that I have posted previously.

Here are 3 different scenarios:

Go down to fill the gap, then go back up,
Go down to retest the neckline, then go back up,
Go all the way down to 85.4 to complete H&S pattern.

by Fujisan Rread more..

20/07.. Evil Speculator: After today’s blood letting the bull leeches are so pumped up that they’ll most likely explode if the extract any more life juice from those poor battered bears. We should be completing this crazy wave sometime Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. Bulltarts - please stay tuned for a healthy helping of good ole fashioned ass kicking - nasty bear style.
First turn pike should be around 920 ish - we could drop below 900 but hey - after this week I won’t get wishful thinking get the better of me. Tell ya what - we touch 920 and I grab the money and thank the tooth fairy.

17/07.. Michael G. Eckert inverse H&S on 60min

For an updated chart, click here..

7/18 -- Trend Channel Magic: What recession? If Intel, IBM and the banks can make money, we must be out of the woods now - right? Nevermind that IBM and Intel both had declining revenues, and the banks had help from Uncle Sam, despite deteriorating asset quality. And Goldman's blockbuster profits were almost entirely trading profits. But none of that matters really. The fact is America is back in there buying and if you're short, you're stuck figuring out just how much pain you can stand while you wait for economic reality to catch up with the masses.

This is where you have to respect the charts, despite being a non-believer. The purple short term down channels from the June highs to July lows are now history across the board. The blue minis most likely represent the first leg of a new ST upchannel. All of them, by the way, are still intact, except for the financials (XLF), where the only break so far has occurred. I would expect a red mini to be imminent, which will ultimately give us a low point from which to guage the angle of this new ST uptrend.

From a long term perspective, the only lines that could provide upside resistance are the greens on the one-year charts that link the June high with the highs at the beginning of the year -- and they are near at hand. Since these lines have no counterpart off the March lows, they are somewhat questionable and may be easily pushed upward. Also worth noting is the SPX is now at its 3-year line (which does have a lower channel line associated) and the Dow has popped above its 3-year.

In sum, the momentum and group pressure want to take things higher. That may lead to greater danger in the fall, but for now, it's governing the day.

Herman: The recent move north cought me off guard, I'm still positioned short on Standard Bank, now at 61.8% retrace and I hope to reduce my small loss and profit when market hopefully move south on Monday to Wednesday next week towards the 50% retrace inline with Fujisan's thoughts, G100 S&P500 Ranking, Trend Channel Magic above and Michael G. Eckert's inverse H&S pattern on his 60min chart above.

For an updated chart, click here..

By Thursday/Friday next week, I hope to turn my short around to face north as I expect the market to move in its final C-leg up to SPX 1100. Therafter, the bear might resume and take us down to retest the lows or possibly lower.

For the Long Term Picture, click here..
For a Peek into the Future with Cycle Studies

Thursday 17 July 2009 ZA am

2009-07-14T20:33:00.034+02:00

Financials broke north, will the rest follow?

15/7.. Herman .. the answer is YES, the rest are following financials up .. an possible inverse head and shoulder formation is forming on the 60 min chart .. in this bear market rally, we now had primary A-up to 950, then primary B-down to 872 and now, underway, primary C-up to possibly a 1000 or 1100 to complete a 50% retrace .. bear market rally's correct north in 3 waves, not 5, so, this is the last leg up before the bear continues to either retest the lows or make new lows to possibly spx 600 .. no confirmation as yet, just a thought for now, see Columbia, SPX 60 min EW chart below.

For an updated chart, click here..

7/16 -- Trend Channel Magic: Markets tacked on a bit more pain for the shorts today. So far, the FXI-China is the only index here that has broken purple and come back to retest. The others have just kept on rolling. They may yet come back for that retest, but they're telling us something about where this market wants to go. I assume that target is the green lines on the 1-year charts. That's the only chart line we have to go by at this point and the only resistance in sight. I cannot even draw a short term green until this thing pulls back enough to give me at least one low point. The 200-day average is being penetrated, which may embolden the bulls even more now.

For an updated chart, click here..

COTS Timer: ..How traders are actually positioned.
Looks like some major breakdowns in the markets this past week. Seems almost predestined that we're headed for a retest of the March lows - and maybe lower. But behold the news from Friday afternoon's Commitments of Traders report. It's actually quite bullish on some fronts. Crude oil and gold still look under pressure for now, but the banks, natural gas and, to some extent, the S&P 500 data are looking up as from the 20th. And in crude, my trading setup has turned bullish for mid-August.

17/7.. Evil Speculator: I have marked 952 on the chart which is what I see as a potential target for tomorrow (Fri). I believe that Monday we might see a pullback - but at this point it appears to me that this third wave is extending and it’s tough to predict where it’ll end.

17/7.. Herman - Current Trade:

Astro Cycle Prediction:

17/7.. The Elliot Wave Lives On:

During the first decline from SPX 956 to 889, the 935 OEW pivot provided resistance near a 61.8% retracement. The next decline from SPX 932 to 869 should have stopped at the 912 OEW pivot, another 61.8% retracement. When the SPX rallied through the 912 OEW pivot yesterday morning it should have alerted most that short term market sentiment was shifting. This relationship was noted earlier in the week. At yesterday's close the SPX was challenging the 935 OEW pivot, and the daily UP/DN volume displayed a large spike. A spike similar to the kickoff of Primary B back in March. Also noted, was the NAZ entering a new uptrend along with the XLK. We had noted over the weekend that this was a treacherous market. We did not expect, however, that it was treacherous in both directions. Today's rally pushed through the 935 OEW pivot, and several other indices, i.e. NDX/SOX are now in uptrends. It looks like we were premature in calling the Primary wave B high at 956. The more probable count, not yet confirmed, would suggest that Major wave A ended at SPX 956, and Major wave B at SPX 869. This count has been carried on the DOW charts during the downtrend. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: SPX/DOW downtrend in jeopardy,
NDX/NAZ uptrending

LONG TERM: bear market

Watchlist:

Weekend Update 27 June 2009

2009-06-26T07:05:00.055+02:00

Elliot Wave Lives On:
01/07.. After hitting SPX 913 yesterday, the market rallied right back to yesterday's highs around SPX 930. Yesterday the market held support at the 912 pivot, and today ran into resistance again at the 935 pivot. The decline from today's high looked quite choppy and there doesn't seem to be any conviction on the downside. The USD appears to be moving this market more than fundamentals. For now, we continue to label the 930-932 high as the topping of Minor wave 2. I should note for those who do not review the charts often. All three of our bank indices (KBE, KRE, XLY) are in downtrends, and four of the nine SPX sectors are in downtrends.

01/07..$SPX now 923.33 @ 16:30 NewYork time, tearget = 890 - take profits Thurs!

for an updated chart, click here..

Danerics Elliott Waves:
30/06.. In conclusion, if P2 topped at 956, then a move down to 821 will eventually have to occur, that much I admit and am ready for. But I suppose if P2 is not topped. I lean toward a new high this summer based on what appears to be a zigzag down from 956 to 888 and subsequent X wave back up. Also I pay EWI a lot of money for their services and they say P2 likely has one more rally this summer based on their expert sentiment readings ans experience) so I blame them LOL! So then the 820 range, in my estimation, would have to wait a while longer.

01/07..And as I said several times before, if P2 is not over, and logic holds that we are looking for another move up toward 1000, there stands an excellent chance that 888.86 will hold as the recent low.

30/6.. G100 Ranking for S&P500
Bullish = 41.2%
Bearish = 58.8%

01/07..investorsintelligence.com

27/06..Summary: Expect the beginning of July to be bearish & bullish again as from 20 July 2009

29/06..Internaxx: Technically, bearish divergences are still valid on daily indicators. Consequently, the downside risk still prevails in the short term.

30/06..Went Short SBK 29/6 @ 15hoo @ SPX 919
30/6.. ABSA BANK: Sell ASAQ Sept 09 now +16%

01/07.. ZA Bank Index @ 14:40

29/6..danericselliottwaves: It would make sense I guess that a corrective down move would come on Wednesday and Thursday, first days of the new quarter and right before vacation holidays. But the market never makes "sense" does it?

29/6..Trend Channel Magic: Looking for a place to go short or take profits? You'r about to get one! The narrow blue minis continued upward today. Small caps have the steepest rise thus far and are approaching their July 11th highs, but will also likely lead market down if it turns here. The VIX July futures maintain almost a 4-point premium that says a decline into July is expected. Midyear window dressing will be over tomorrow and we will soon find out if they are correct.

27/6..Herman:
We now have three experts in agreement, Richard, Michael and Tony. The down trend could still be in play, also the S&P500 P&F chart still show a price target of $SPX850 after its 'tripple bottom breakdown' on 15 June and now after this 'low pole reversal' that started the 24th of June run along to $SPX 927 we should expect the downtrend to continue in a day or two!! Since the energy sector led the way, I will also be following the $XLE along with the $SPX.

30/06..Herman: Caution for shorts.. As of today, the SPX p&f don't show target of 850 anymore, it now show a 'Double Top Breakout' with price objective to be 1015

01/07..Chart by Richard Lehman

7/1 -am- The blue minis are pushing higher and it looks as if the recent breaks have become slope changes. This is more apparent on the small caps than the Dow (see Naz charts.)This will have the effect of raising the purple trend lines, which may end up approaching a horizontal angle or even possibly a slightly upward angle when finalized. But it still means that we are not entering a new uptrend yet but are completing a leg of the current purple channels, which are flattening. When the blue minis are done, the indexes will be at the top of those purple channels and should still reverse.

27/06..Chart by Michael G. Eckert

30/06 @ 16:30 ZA time

The Elliot Wave Lives On:
30/06..For the past three months the SPX/DOW, as well as the NDX/NAZ, have had strong month over month gains. That ended in June with the SPX/DOW mixed, and the NDX/NAZ +3.2%. Short term, the SPX failed to break through resistance at the OEW 935 pivot early this morning. SPX 930, btw, is the exact same level that the SPX hit in mid-May before hitting the 956 high in mid-June. Technically, as some in our group have pointed out, this is a potential head and shoulders topping formation. With today's break through yesterday's low (916) momentum is now to the downside. It would now take a rally over SPX 930 to reverse this. We continue to maintain the count of an uptrend high at SPX 956, a Minor wave 1 down to SPX 889, and a Minor wave 2 at today's 930 high. A drop below the Minor wave 1 low would most likely confirm the downtrend.

Technical Market Report: by Mike Burk
Next Monday 29/06 and/or Tuesday 30/06 are likely to be down.

Slope of Hope:
We've only got two trading days left this quarter, and believe me, this quarter is a huge sigh of relief to money managers around the world. They are going to preserve every possible cent of profit they can log for this quarter, since it's the first good one they've had in a while. So the bulls are going to have that tailwind helping them for a short while longer. Come July 1st, that disappears.

Descision Point:
Bottom Line: Our medium-term timing model for the S&P 500 remains on a buy signal, and it still has some cushion before switching to a sell. My expectations for a medium-term price decline are somewhat abated based upon the short-term breakout that occurred this week, but I think it will take a week or two before we see the situation resolved.

COTS Timer:
The S&P 500 setup will go bullish July 20

The Big Picture - Post 2

2009-06-21T11:44:00.028+02:00

Excellent Work done by: ETF Corner

September 06, 2009

QQQQ: Could the Nasdaq crash 25% by March 2010?

From October 2007 until November 2008 the cubes (Nasdaq 100) have fallen roughly 50%. QQQQ went from $55 to $25. From November 2008 until Setpember 2009 they have rallied roughly 60% from $25 to $41. In the late 1930's the Dow Jones fell 50% in early 1937 until early 1938 and then rallied a whopping 60% from early 1938 until late 1938. The chart of the Dow Jones in the late 30's is quite similar to that of the current Nasdaq! I have made up a chart that shows the variations of the Dow jones back then! I think that the Nasdaq might be at point (A). What I have done in the chart below is to zoom on this particular point (A) area and reproduce the exact same fluctuations on today's Nasdaq! If history were to continue to repeat itself (The Dow fell 25% after the 60% rally), then the Nasdaq is set to fall 25% in the next six months in this order!Strategy in a secular Bear Market : "Short and hold "!

August 23, 2009
Pablo Picasso!
I wanted to compare and contrast in a meanigful and colourful way the chart of the Dow Jones in the (1920-1940) period and the Nasdaq in the (1990-2020) period. I have spotted a red dot on both charts to show you were we stand ! I won't write anything about my long term prediction about the Nasdaq since my chart speaks a thousand words!

August 31, 2009

Strategy in a secular Bear Market : "Short and hold "!

All of us know this well known strategy of buy and hold ! After the great Secular Bull Market that started in 1982 with government deregulation the mantra was to buy and hold. Since 2000 we swtiched to Secular Bear Market... which usually last 16 to 18 years on average. I think that the right strategy that can still work for the few years to come is still to short and hold provided "good timing"! I believe that the US indices are at a level where you can short and hold the QQQQ, the SPY,or the DIA and hold them for the next few years. Let me explain. Here is the chart of the Dow Jones Industrials from 1937 until 1945. The chart is the twin brother of today's Nasdaq. Now if we zoom a little bit and take the 1937-1945 period for , this would translate exactly in the 2009-2016 period for the Nasdaq (QQQQ). I've just added the Nasdaq dates on the chart. As you can see we are at around point (A) !! Wouldn't this be a great time to short QQQQ and hold for a few years? The markets will be a lot lower in a 2 to 3 years from now.

Friday Update 19 June 2009

2009-06-18T09:24:00.053+02:00

17/06.. I was short SASOL (SSL) from R298.17
19/06.. I took profit and closed SASOL trade
22/06.. Expect the SPX, now 921.23, futures 906.40, to pull back to 875, however, as long as we hold above the 1998 lows near 925 today or tomorrow, we can not rule out a Fib extension of this rally to the 970 level.

19/06.. SASOL

20/6.. ABSA Bank - A division of Barcklays in RSA
I'm considering a short in ASA at $SPX 928

17/06.. SASOL

For an updated chart, click here..

17/06.. $36.67
18/06.. $36.18
19/06..$34.18 (6.79%)

TRIX at high of previous declines
PSAR show one-dot-sell 17/06
PSAR show two-dot sell 18/06
20 day SMA cross-over 18/06
MACD trendlines turned down
MACD histogram turned down
ADX's -DI & +DI crossed over

17/06.. The Elliot Wave Lives On:
If we count the SPX 956 high as the end of the uptrend. Then the decline from that level can be counted as a five wave Minor wave 1: 936-946-920-928-904. From today's oversold levels we would now get a rally, Minor wave 2, back to the previous 4th wave (928), or even challenge the 935 OEW pivot. This should generate an overbought short term momentum reading before the market turns over and enters a declining Minor wave 3. The 935 OEW pivot should act as significant resistance during this rally. Should the market break through this resistance then some other wave count is at work. Shold the market break below SPX 904 before rallying above 920, then Minor wave 1 would be extending.

18/06.. The Elliot Wave Lives On:
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds dropped about 1 1/4 points, Crude gained 10 cents, Gold lost $2.00, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 912 and then 848, with resistance at 935 and then 961. Short term momentum was oversold at yesterday's low and is now reaching overbought. Tomorrow is Options expiration. Last thursday the SPX hit 956, the high for the uptrend. Since then, the market has worked its way down to SPX 904 as of yesterday. The decline appears to be five waves: 936, 946, 920, 928 and 904. At the lows the market was extremely oversold and due for a rally, which has been underway. The rally from SPX 904 has unfolded in three waves, thus far: 918, 909, 922. Plus the market is beginning to reach overbought levels. With the rally over SPX 920 today we can now mark a potential Minor wave 1 at the 904 low. The same parameters noted yesterday remain in effect. Options expiration fridays can be quite volatile.

19/06.. The Elliot Wave Lives On:
Todays rally to SPX 927 retraces about 50% of the decline from 956 to 904. This is typical of a Minor wave 2 in this bear market. This market still can move a bit higher in the short term. The OEW pivot at 935 should offer good resistance, if we have indeed ended the uptrend at SPX 956. - I want to re-enter Sasol short at $SPX 935

6/20 -- Trend Channel Magic:
Today's failure suggests to me that we have hit the upper line of the ST downtrend and I have drawn it that way (purple) on most charts. We have now had teh red mini down and the blue back up. I expect Monday to begin the next red mini down. Its a bit early to make that call, but that's what I'm seeing. VIX shows a larger upchannel now and its position is at the bottom of that channel, so moving up from here would be consistent with another decline in equities. Furthermore, it cannot be comforting that Chinese and American ships are heading to intercept a North Korean vessel carrying nuclear weaponry.

17/06

For an updated chart, click here..

The Chart Pattern Trader:
6/17.. Market breadth indicators remain bearish, confirming the bearish signals on the ADX and MACD on the daily S&P 500 chart. So any attempted recovery would only present another oppertunity for the shorts to gang up on the market. The right shoulder has begun to be carved out. With 945 being our neckline of resistance.

For an updated chart, click here..

NYMO below Zero
NYSI turned below its 5 day EMA
Neg divergence between $NYA & $NYSI
Notice 2008 May high's
17/06 = one-dot-sell on NASI
18/06 = three-dot-sell on NASI
20/06 = four-dot-sell on NASI

Triple Bottom Breakdown
Price Target $878.13 then $850.00

For an updated chart, click here..

A triple bottom breakdown is similar to a double bottom breakdown except that the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of support (area where buyers are willing to buy the stock and create demand that outstrips supply) than what is seen on a double bottom. The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down.

18/06.. $CPC = CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio

For an updated chart, click here..

$CPC MA (100) crossed 8 mths trendline north
$CPC MA (100) crossed bottomline north
Indicating start of SPX W5 southwards
Immediate target could be $SPX 878.13
W5 should end around 29 Sept 2009
W5 low could be $SPX 600?
Sasol put option expire 25 Sept 2009

Sell in May should work well in 2009

Buy Recommendation 21 Aug 2009

2009-06-10T08:16:00.027+02:00

Rosneft a BUY 19Aug-24Aug09 @ $5 to $5.50

Rosneft Co will be a hold to May 2010
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The Crude Oil Cycle: the red line is an important price cycle for oil, based on decades of weekly data. The black line shows how closely the actual price of crude has followed its historical cycle. More importantly, cyclical research is now showing that this new move in oil prices is still in its early stages. The next cyclical “sell” signal for oil is not until May of next year, giving you a full TEN MONTHS to go for substantial profits in Rosneft Oil Company as oil prices climb!
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29/07.. Correction Due, Buy after correction
Buy when price close to green Bollinger band

For an updated chart, click here..
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Rosneft Oil Company produces and markets petroleum products. The Company explores, extracts, refines and markets oil and natural gas. Rosneft produces oil in Western Siberia, Sakhalin, the North Caucasus, and the Arctic regions of Russia.
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Another possibility:

For an updated chart, click here..

Peek into the Future with Cycle Studies

2009-05-29T09:33:00.017+02:00

Armstrong Economic Confidence Model

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Martin Armstrong discovered the 8.6 year PI Economic Confidence Model that correctly predicted many Economic Confidence crisis like the 1929 and 1937 stock market declines, but also the 1985, 1994 and 2002 major Commodities lows and various major Equities lows and highs as well. The Fed will do what it can to stop a Global Depression like the 1930's and that includes trying to reflate the economy through asset purchases. This reflation can be seen in the recent move from 120 to 140 in the 30 year Bond which added Trillions to the balance sheets of Bond holders and gave them room to breathe from the crisis. According to the previous Debt Deflation cycle, Bonds should stay high for an extended period of time as the Fed buys Treasuries to keep Rates low.
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$SPX 8,6 Year Cycle Lows by AstoCycle.net

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Liquidity Induced Bubble Watch

View updated here..
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After the roaring Twenties took debt to 270% of GDP in an unsustainable way, the collapse of this debt led to the great Depression, WWII, and a distinct distrust of paper assets and debt. Debt levels then returned to a more manageable 150% of GDP before rising again, mostly from the growth of mortgages as the real estate and commodities bubble took hold in the late 1970's. When these real asset bubbles collapsed, much of the funds moved to the Nikkei forming another bubble and pushing the Yen sharply higher in the late 1980's. Once the Japanese bubble collapsed, funds flowed back to US and European markets fueling their rise in the late 1990's, and confirmed by the rising US Dollar. The ensuing US market collapse of 2000 sent the funds back into real assets like Commodities and Real Estate, but this time embracing even more debt and leverage to 350% of GDP. We have phenomenal growth of credit in absolute terms too, with US Treasuries and total credit both expanded 9-10 times since the first bubble formed 27 years ago. Since we are already seeing the first flight away from risky paper, history is likely to repeat itself, and 60% of this debt will be eventually wiped out mostly worthless in the next 5 to 15 years.
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The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals
1998.55... 07/20/98
2000.7.... 09/13/00
2002.85... 11/08/02
2005...... 01/02/05
2007.15... 02/27/07
2009.3.... 04/23/09
2011.45... 06/18/11
2013.6.... 08/12/13
2015.75... 10/07/15
2017.9.... 12/01/17
2020.05... 01/26/20
2022.2.... 03/22/22
2024.35... 05/16/24
2026.5.... 07/11/26
2028.65... 09/04/28
2030.8.... 10/30/30
2032.95... 12/24/32
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Benner-Fibonacci Model:

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The Bradley Model 2009:

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The Bradley Model on S&P500:

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Foundation for the Study of Cycles:

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Foundation for the Study of Cycles:

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24/08.. Herman: To my mind, the market can head north untill Ap/May 2010 as The Bradley model suggest and even futher to somewhere in early 2011 when 'Alt-A' & 'Option-ARM' home loans in the U.S. reset, just to plunge another short, severe leg down to bottom in late June 2011 as Martin Armstrong's 8,6 year PI Economic Confidence Model and The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Charts above suggest.

HOUSING CYCLE – BOTTOM AUGUST 2009
The current down cycle in real estate values should bottom in August of this year. Using the 22-year Nodal Cycle, the highs in the cycle occur about 11 years after the low in the cycle. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, real estate values hit bottom in February 1935, moving to a high in June 1944. An example of how real estate values actually work: If you had purchased a house in 1960 for $20,000 near the high in the cycle and you wanted to sell it 10 years later in 1970 near the bottom of the cycle value of the house would still be only $20,000. But by 1980, near the top in the cycle, that same home would have increased in value to $80,000. Using these cycles can be very profitable if home-buying is more than just a place to live. The last top was about May 2000 moving to a bottom this year. The next top in the cycle will be in 2020. When is it time to buy and when is it time to sell? Those buying in the next few years will be reaping the profits in 2020.